No sure thing for the GOP

Last night, on Misha's comment section, I promised a response to the premise that the Demoscum Party was imploding upon itself. Not as a counterpoint, mind you, but as a corollary. Sir Banagor wrote the original treatise (which you can find here), and I had hoped to match that - except that the Sir's written the equivalent of a term paper on this subject, and if I took speaking courses my senior year to get out of writing about Beowulf, I damned  sure don't wanna spend my day writing something the length of Banagor's. (grin)

That said, I did  promise a response.

It's all well and good that we see the Donks imploding upon themselves, although others like Misha look at the coming Demoscummic immolation with a mixture of excitement and alarm, worrying that a one-party political system can't be good for the country.

My question is: What happens, then, if the Republicans self-destruct along with the Asses?

Consider. Bush has seemingly done everything he can to alienate the conservative base of his party. The immigration plan. The runaway spending. Campaign finance "reform", which he could have - and should have - stopped cold. The reluctance to wage a more intense fight for his judicial nominees (the Pickering recess appointment notwithstanding). The selection of certain Cabinet members who are anathema to conservatives (Whitman) and the retention of others who are incompetent Das Klintonreich  holdovers (Mineta).

Certain conservative groups, such as the National Taxpayers Union, the Club for Growth, Citizens Against Government Waste and the Free Congress Foundation, led by Paul Weyrich, have pulled their support from the President. And Weyrich isn't a right-wing extremist; he falls solidly in the conservative mainstream. He's one of the co-founders of the Heritage Foundation, and has been a conservative VIP for decades. And there are others like Weyrich in the conservative movement who are equally disenchanted with the Bush Administration's lip service towards their causes.

Additionally, there are conservatives who are very  upset over the Patriot Act, and even some conservatives who oppose the war in Iraq - not because they hate Bush, which is why the Donks oppose the war - but because they honestly believe there were more practical ways to deploy our forces. Much as I support the war effort, if a conservative offers such opposition in good faith, I'd be foolish not to at least listen to what he has to say.

Add it all up, and it's not an unlikely scenario to see Bush lose in November and  drag down those conservatives who are betting their careers on his coattails. What if the base does  stay home for the general election?

So if you're a conservative like me, be afraid. Be very afraid. And don't count those electoral votes until they're in the bag. Even then, don't for a moment believe that a Bush victory in '04 means a validation of what we believe. Bush leans more towards being a RINO than a conservative, and those of us on the Right would be well-advised to remember that.